A keen eye for risk

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Minkowski Vacuum Stress Tensor Fluctuations

We study the fluctuations of the stress tensor for a massless scalar field in two and four-dimensional Minkowski spacetime in the vacuum state. Covariant expressions for the stress tensor correlation function are obtained as sums of derivatives of a scalar function. These expressions allow one to express spacetime averages of the correlation function as finite integrals. We also study the correlation between measurements of the energy density along a worldline. We find that these measurements may be either positively correlated or anticorrelated. The anticorrelated measurements can be interpreted as telling us that if one measurement yields one sign for the averaged energy density, a successive measurement with a suitable time delay is likely to yield a result with the opposite sign.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures; Some additional comments added in Sect. IIB and a more compact argument given in App.

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE RISK SPECIFICATIONS IN FARM PROGRAMMING MODELS

The use of alternative probability density functions to specify risk in farm programming models is explored and compared to a traditional specification using historical data. A method is described that compares risk efficient crop mixes using stochastic dominance techniques to examine impacts of different risk specifications on farm plans. Results indicate that a traditional method using historical farm data is as efficient for risk averse producers as two other methods of incorporating risk in farm programming models when evaluated using second degree stochastic dominance. Stochastic dominance with respect to a function further discriminates among the distributions, indicating that a density function based on the historic forecasting accuracy of the futures market results in a more risk-efficient crop mix for highly risk averse producers. Results also illustrate the need to validate alternative risk specifications perceived as improvements to traditional methods.Risk and Uncertainty,

Stable coronary syndromes: pathophysiology, diagnostic advances and therapeutic need

The diagnostic management of patients with angina pectoris typically centres on the detection of obstructive epicardial CAD, which aligns with evidence-based treatment options that include medical therapy and myocardial revascularisation. This clinical paradigm fails to account for the considerable proportion (approximately one-third) of patients with angina in whom obstructive CAD is excluded. This common scenario presents a diagnostic conundrum whereby angina occurs but there is no obstructive CAD (ischaemia and no obstructive coronary artery disease—INOCA). We review new insights into the pathophysiology of angina whereby myocardial ischaemia results from a deficient supply of oxygenated blood to the myocardium, due to various combinations of focal or diffuse epicardial disease (macrovascular), microvascular dysfunction or both. Macrovascular disease may be due to the presence of obstructive CAD secondary to atherosclerosis, or may be dynamic due to a functional disorder (eg, coronary artery spasm, myocardial bridging). Pathophysiology of coronary microvascular disease may involve anatomical abnormalities resulting in increased coronary resistance, or functional abnormalities resulting in abnormal vasomotor tone. We consider novel clinical diagnostic techniques enabling new insights into the causes of angina and appraise the need for improved therapeutic options for patients with INOCA. We conclude that the taxonomy of stable CAD could improve to better reflect the heterogeneous pathophysiology of the coronary circulation. We propose the term ‘stable coronary syndromes’ (SCS), which aligns with the well-established terminology for ‘acute coronary syndromes’. SCS subtends a clinically relevant classification that more fully encompasses the different diseases of the epicardial and microvascular coronary circulation

An investigation into the effects of gender, prior academic achievement, place of residence, age and attendance on first year undergraduate attainment

The number of people engaging in higher education (HE) has increased considerably over the past decade. However, there is a need to achieve a balance between increasing access and bearing down on rates of non-completion. It has been argued that poor attainment and failure within the first year are significant contributors to the overall statistics for non-progression and that, although research has concentrated on factors causative of student withdrawal, less attention has focused on students who fail academically. This study investigated the effects of a number of a number of factors on the academic attainment of first-year undergraduates within the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Glamorgan. Results showed that gender and age had only minor impacts upon educational achievement, while place of residence, prior educational attainment and attendance emerged as significant predictors of attainment. Further analysis showed these three factors to be interrelated , with attendance correlating strongly with both entry points and place or residence. In turn, prior attainment was strongly linked to place of residence. Findings may be used to identify and proactively target students at risk of poor academic performance and dropout in order in order to improve rates of performance and progression

Effects of Vacuum Fluctuation Suppression on Atomic Decay Rates

The use of atomic decay rates as a probe of sub-vacuum phenomena will be studied. Because electromagnetic vacuum fluctuations are essential for radiative decay of excited atomic states, decay rates can serve as a measure of the suppression of vacuum fluctuation in non-classical states, such as squeezed vacuum states. In such states the renormalized expectation value of the square of the electric field or the energy density can be periodically negative, representing suppression of vacuum fluctuations. We explore the extent to which atomic decays can be used to measure the mean squared electric field or energy density. We consider a scheme in which atoms in an excited state transit a closed cavity whose lowest mode contains photons in a non-classical state. The change in the decay probability of the atom in the cavity due to the non-classical state can, under certain circumstances, serve as a measure of the mean squared electric field or energy density in the cavity. We derive a quantum inequality bound on the decrease in this probability. We also show that the decrease in decay rate can sometimes be a measure of negative energy density or negative squared electric field. We make some estimates of the magnitude of this effect, which indicate that an experimental test might be possible.Comment: 19 pages, 3 figure

COMMON PROPERTY AND COLLECTIVE ACTION: COOPERATIVE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN HAITI

The paper is divided into four sections. First, watershed management in Haiti is presented as a problem of voluntary collective action in which small watersheds are the common responsibility of a group of users. Second, this situation is given formal expression as a "public goods" problem, in which obligations to contribute time and labor to the maintenance and management of watersheds are treated as conditional or contingent commitments to cooperate (rather than defect). Third, an empirical analysis is presented in which key economic and cultural factors are tested to determine those that best explain the individual propensity to cooperate and the conditions necessary for collective action to emerge. Fourth, we interpret these results in light of the model, and suggest some generalizations and extensions of theoretical and empirical research on common property and collective action.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Single camera 3D planar Doppler velocity measurements using imaging fibre bundles

Two frequency planar Doppler Velocimetry (2ν-PDV) is a modification of the Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) method that allows velocity measurements to be made, quickly and non intrusively, across a plane defined by a laser light sheet. In 2ν-PDV the flow is illuminated sequentially with two optical frequencies, separated by about 700MHz. A single CCD viewing through an iodine absorption cell is used to capture images under each illumination. The two images are used to find the normalised transmission through the cell, and the velocity information is encoded as a variation in the transmission Use of a single camera ensures registration of the reference and signal images and removes issues associated with the polarization sensitivity of the beam splitter, which are major problems in the conventional approach. A 2ν-PDV system has been constructed using a continuous-wave Argon ion laser combined with multiple imaging fibre bundles, to port multiple views of the measurement plane to a CCD camera, allowing the measurement of three velocity components.EPSR

Single camera 3D planar Doppler velocity measurements, using two frequency planar Doppler velocimetry (2v-PDV) and imaging fibre bundles

A modified Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) technique, two frequency PDV (2v-PDV), is described that allows measurements of the velocity field over a plane defined by a laser light sheet using sequential illumination of the flow with two closely separated (&IGHz) frequencies of laser light. This allows a common-path imaging head to be used containing a single CCD camera instead of the usual camera pair. The problem of image misalignment is now avoided and the polarisation sensitivity of the beam splitter used in two camera imaging heads is also removed. Cost efficiency is improved by the simplification of the system. This paper describes the development of a 2v-PDV system using a continuous wave argon ion laser capable of making time-averaged velocity measurements. Initially a single velocity component system was constructed using acousto-optic modulators to produce the two illumination frequencies required. The system was then expanded to make 3D velocity measurements using a single CCD camera and multiple coherent imaging fibre bundles. Measurements were made on the rotating disc, in order to assess error level in the measurements, and on a seeded axisymmetric air jet. A method of improving the sensitivity of the 2v-PDV system is demonstrated by using both the rising and falling slopes of the iodine absorption line. Reductions in the error levels of velocity measurements of approximately 40% can be achieved using this increased sensitivity method